In the beginning of 2019, I expected a S&P500 performance of around 3-4%, unlike most of the analysts that were waiting for the big bubble to crash or at least a negative performance. For me, it was clear that the long-term negative interest rates are increasing the values of shares. The only unsecurity was the big duck on the other ocean: https://amzn.to/2QnWEY0
Nevertheless, the S&P500 has a YTD performance of ~25,8%. Incredible – against all odds.
Now, most of the analysts are optimistic…but wait…we have been here before.
My guess is: 2020 will be nothing special. Performance of S&P500 between 7-13% as far as nothing comes along the way!
And that’s an important thing to keep in mind. The election of the (next?) US president in due, with the current one enduring an impeachment process.
Moreover, tech stocks will be under huge pressure because some Democrats has made it their goal to regulate big tech companies like Apple, Microsoft and the evil of the evil: Facebook.
A further escalation in the trade war is unlikely because the sitting president is too busy fighting for his job.
The real estate market has currently peaked and it should theoretically increase its valuation as long as interest rates are that low. Furthermore, that’s not a reason for a crisis because credits are strongly regulated since 2007/08 and have good ground.
When a bubble bursts, it will crash in a completely unexpected market.
To sum it all up: There are some risks that are unlikely to have a big impact on the market.
Happy investing 😉
